RESEARCH
Select research papers are summarized and linked below. A complete list of publications and speaking engagements can be downloaded here.
GEMINI: A New Analytical Framework for Understanding Economic Development
Working Paper. Self published, April 2023
“This paper presents a new analytical framework for assessing economic development in developing and emerging markets. It offers a composite metric that includes not only traditional indicators of country economic wellbeing—macroeconomic stability, competitiveness, human capital development and infrastructure growth—but also adds elements that have been ignored by many of the international indices such gender, environmental sustainability, private sector participation, climate, capital market development, and financial inclusion.”
Bangladesh’s Journey to Middle-Income Status: The Role of The Private Sector
Co-authored with Masrur Reaz & Faaria Tasin. Published by the International Finance Corporation, Dhaka: March 2020
“This knowledge piece provides a snapshot of the Bangladeshi private sector, provides a historical context and reviews the public policies that have affected the private sector, including macroeconomic management and trade policy, and then conducts a survey of Bangladeshi businesses to understand the constraints to further expansion.”
The Growing Relationship Between China and Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic, Trade, Investment, and Aid Links
The World Bank Research Observer, Volume 22, Issue 1, Spring 2007, Pages 103–130, Published: 20 April 2007.
“China poses a challenge to good governance and macroeconomic management in Africa because of the potential Dutch disease implications of commodity booms. China presents both an opportunity for Africa to reduce its marginalization from the global economy and a challenge for it to effectively harness the influx of resources to promote poverty-reducing economic development at home.”
Mauritius: An Economic Success Story
Chapter in Yes, Africa Can: Success Stories from a Dynamic Continent (Chuhan ed), Washington DC, 2011.
“The long-term challenge for the government of Mauritius is to maintain its unique combination of resilience in the face of changing economic circumstances and adaptability to new paths for growth. A number of key lessons can be learned from Mauritius’s experience.”
What Happens When a Country Does Not Adjust to Terms of Trade Shocks? The Case of Oil-Rich Gabon
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3403, September 2004
“Discovered in the 1970s, oil windfalls have delivered spectacular wealth and financed public expenditure over two decades. However, the oil boom has led to the Dutch disease and the shrinkage of the industrial and agricultural sectors of the economy due to the appreciation of the exchange rate and the movement of capital to the oil sector. With output projections suggesting that oil will be depleted within the next 10 to 15 years, there are growing pressures on the policymakers to take actions to diversify production.”
The Impact of the Strong Euro on the Real Effective Exchange Rates of the Two Francophone African CFA Zones
“Zafar, Ali. 2005. The Impact of the Strong Euro on the Real Effective Exchange Rates of the Two Francophone African CFA Zones. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3751. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank.
“The author estimates the degree of misalignment of the CFA franc since the introduction of the euro in 1999. Using a relative purchasing power parity-based methodology, he develops a monthly panel time series dataset for both the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) zone and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) zone to compute a trade-weighted real effective exchange rate indexed series from January 1999 to December 2004.”
Regional Integration in Central Africa: Key Issues
Co-authored with Keiko Kubota. Africa Region Working Paper Series No. 52 June 2003.
“Regional integration can be a vehicle for overcoming these challenges and a force for improved economic prospects. It may lock countries into policy reform, achieve economies of scale, and provide a unified forum for international negotiations.”
REVENUE AND THE FISCAL IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF NIGER
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3500, February 2005.
“This study was prepared in the context of several adjustment operations and public expenditure review missions to Niger in order to provide analytical background and empirical context about revenue mobilization and trade reform. The main purpose of the exercise was to understand why Niger’s revenue has remained so low, in spite of the economic and trade reforms the country has undertaken.”